Irish national average house prices fell 8.9% in year to March 2008

Irish national average house prices fell by a further 0.7% in March according to the latest edition of the permanent tsb / ESRI House Price Index. This follows a similar reductions [0.8%] in February and [0.7%] in January. This continues to indicate some easing in the rate of reduction compared to the final quarter of last year, when the monthly average price change was -1.3% [October], -1.1% [November] and -1.5% [December].

In the first three months of 2008 average national prices fell by 2.2%.

This compares to a fall in prices of 3.9% in the last quarter of 2007. Measuring the rate of growth in the 12 months (year on year) to March, average national prices were down by 8.9%. This compares to a decline of 8.8% recorded in the 12 months to February.

The average price paid for a house nationally in March 2008 was €281,643. This compares to €287,887 in December 2007.

The index does not take account of volume/activity in the market which is significantly down, as reflected in stamp duty receipts and mortgage approvals.

Methodology

Dermot O'Leary, Chief Economist of Goodbody Stockbrokers,commented last November that the data are reflective of prices at the mortgage payment stage of the house-buying process. This can be some 3-4 months after a sales price is agreed, and, in a slower market, this lag could get extended further. Therefore, there is a significant lag between market prices and the official house price data. Secondly, the type of properties in the ptsb database may be concentrated towards the lower price range in the market.While recognising the fact that the ptsb data takes account of the different characteristics of the house, the average price in the country is well below the estimates contained in the dataset from the Department of the Environment. Finally, price incentives, which have become common for new scheme developments, would not get reflected in the data.

Commenting on the results, Niall O’Grady, General Manager Marketing, permanent tsb bank said: "This result in March confirms the continuing softening in both house prices and transactions numbers across the spectrum as the market moves to more realistic levels of affordability. The data also clearly shows that sellers who are targeting first time buyers have adjusted their prices very significantly in an attempt to reignite demand.”

FinFacts